Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which mostly describes why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you wish to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either group might be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is certainly playing a part. You're simply playing the portions. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that important 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to become the very first group given that Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading supervisor Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has actually come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) talks to media during a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


"I would anticipate that to most likely continue," Cipollini said. "I believe we'll probably take a bit more Oilers cash simply since of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I believe we will wind up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't purchase the Oilers should be favored.


"You don't see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you always ask yourself the apparent concern: Are these 2 teams much better or even worse than they were in 2015? I 'd state Florida is a better version of themselves from last year. Edmonton (is) slightly even worse than in 2015, especially when you take a look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing much better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain became the second skater and 6th gamer to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him an opportunity to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to give McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred since of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they might give it to him here, however that's something to view as the video games start. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't really standing out ... there is a real life where it could be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been deemed a weakness on the lineup, a credibility that seemed sealed when he was benched 2 video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has actually allowed one or no goals in five of his past seven starts, three of them nothings.


Another excellent run in the net might put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have told you this was sustainable previously," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable."


Florida is making its third consecutive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue might lastly reach the Panthers. Or they might just be on a heating system having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics point to a Panthers champion and though either result would be great with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve stated. "Last year was a bit harder because more individuals liked Florida, but people are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously might go in any case and Oklahoma City is heavily preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a possibility to go 6 or seven video games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press by means of AP, File)