Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so near to being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which largely describes why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you wish to look at this pie, you might make an argument that either group could be preferred," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is definitely playing a part. You're simply playing the portions. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that crucial 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to become the first Canadian team given that Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the money has actually come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media throughout a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


"I would expect that to probably continue," Cipollini said. "I believe we'll most likely take a little bit more Oilers money simply since of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I think we will wind up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not buy the Oilers should be preferred.


"You do not see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you always ask yourself the apparent concern: Are these 2 groups much better or worse than they were in 2015? I 'd say Florida is a much better variation of themselves from last year. Edmonton (is) somewhat even worse than in 2015, especially when you take a look at no Zach Hyman offered for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I offer the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter group than they were last year."


Edmonton's captain became the second skater and sixth gamer to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while using the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, providing him a chance to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they truly going to provide McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred since of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they could provide it to him here, however that's something to enjoy as the video games get going. If there is a Florida player that isn't truly standing apart ... there is a genuine world where it might be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been considered as a weak point on the lineup, a track record that appeared to be sealed when he was benched two games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major reason Edmonton is still playing. He has actually permitted one or no goals in five of his past 7 starts, three of them nothings.


Another fantastic run in the web could put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually informed you this was sustainable previously," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd successive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness could finally capture up to the Panthers. Or they might just be on a heating system having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics indicate a Panthers championship and though either result would be fine with Caesars, a Florida success would be much better.


"I don ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve stated. "In 2015 was a bit harder since more people liked Florida, but people are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously could go in any case and Oklahoma City is greatly favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I think it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has a possibility to go 6 or seven video games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press by means of AP, File)